New research from S&P Global Market Intelligence looks to suggest that homeowners insurers are reaching rate adequacy, but certain marketplace factors are creating what it called a “fragmented phase.”
Nationally, the U.S. effective approved homeowners rate change declined from about 13.6% in 2024, to about 6.3% in 2025, to now about 1.8% through July 2026.
“This downward trend suggests carriers have largely completed the national adequacy reset and are now looking for price change as needed or as necessitated by jurisdiction, peril mix, and regulatory timing,” said S&P GMI.
S&P GMI said rates in some high-loss exposure areas are rising. The overall slowdown is not a r
eflection of declining risk, but it is a signal that prior rate filings are being earned and allowing home insurers to pause rate increases in those regions.
S&P GMI also said the rate-change decline “reflects the byproduct of broad-based, non-rate actions” like higher deductibles, rate tiering based on property age and condition, and better risk selection.
Meanwhile, using its Capital IQ Pro RateWatch application, S&P noticed the rate-increase h
eat map shifted in certain regions where there may be timing issues due to regulatory approvals.
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“That helps explain stabilization in headline figures alongside continued pressure where underlying loss patterns have not normalized,” S&P said. “The r
ate changes across some states and peril classes have already absorbed enough rate to catch up, while others still sit behind adequacy.”
So, while states like Minnesota and Colorado may have seen rate changes of about 17.8% and 1
6.6% in 2025, respectively, drop to about 1.6% and 0.8% so far in 2026, other states like North Carolina have experienced rate increases.
Homeowners insurers have posted profitable underwriting results thanks to some lighter catastrophe losses, which may reduce the need for rate changes. But they still faced risk linked to rate changes they filed in 2025.
“The 2026 cycle, therefore, belongs to a fragmented, state by-state answer set built on localized catastrophe experience, regulatory realization, underwriting appeti
te, and earned performance rather than on a uniform national resolution,” said S&P GMI.
