Ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by w
eeks following a deal to reopen the waterway, shipping and maritime security sources say.
The operation by conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones could co
ntinue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping or oil companies are confident enough to sail through, according to assessments from five Western maritime security sources.
That could potentially hold up tens of millions of barrels of oil, in addition to the oil supply f
rom the Gulf already blocked since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, according to estimates based on pre-war flows.
Every export barrel from the Gulf is crucial given stockpiles in the world’s largest econom
ies are headed toward their lowest levels since at least 2003, according to analysis last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Even though Iran and the U.S. quietly helped ships pass through the blockaded waterway in re
cent weeks, shipping officials continued to urge caution after the U.S. and Iran said on Sunday th
ey had reached a preliminary agreement to end their war and reopen the strait.
“We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety & security officer at shipping association BIMCO.
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“The threat of mines in the area remains a concern immediately as well as further down the line and mine-free routes need to be established.”
Assurances Sought by Shippers
It is unclear how many mines Iran may have laid in the strait, which handled 20% of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas before the war.
Iran, which has sought to assert its control over the waterway during the war, has threatened to
deploy naval mines, without commenting on whether its forces have planted them.
The U.S. has indicated that mines are a risk, and says it has targeted Iranian mine-laying boats.
On June 2, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearin
g that Iran had “mined large segments of Hormuz — international waters,” without elaborating.
In a June 11 note, Germany’s navy, citing information from the U.S. and British navies, said mines w
ere located in four locations around the strait, adding that the mine locations could not be verified by Germany.
Read more:Shipowners Seek Clarity on Hormuz Deal as Waiting Flotillas Grow
Even the possibility of mines could deter companies. A supertanker and its cargo of crude are worth about $300 million, so war risk underwriters, oil and tan
ker companies would need assurances that passage is safe before they attempt to pass through the strait, shipping industry officials said.
“One sea mine is enough to have fatalities,” said Rene Kofod-Olsen, CEO of V.Group, one of the
world’s top technical ship and crew management specialists which has 13 ships stuck in the Gulf.
“That’s obviously a massive issue for global shipping,” he said.
Shipping Traffic Remained Low
When asked last week about how many mines had been laid and locations, a spokesperson with the U.S. military’s Central Command (Centcom) said it was unable to publicly discuss specifics for operational security reasons.
“U.S. military efforts for ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is fully clear of sea mines laid by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are ongoing,” they said.
