Devastating floods have killed more than 1,300 people and caused at least $20 billion in losses since late last month
across parts of South and Southeast Asia, underscoring the increasing risks from climate change and extreme weather for the region’s fast-growing populations and economies.
A sequence of three tropical cyclones coincided with the regular northeast monsoon to deliver rainfall totals uns
een in decades in some locations, and triggered a wave of destruction from Sri Lanka to Indonesia — damaged homes, r
oads and rail lines, decimated crops, slowed factory output and inundated tourist spots.
Scientists and analysts have pointed to the likely aggravating impact of climate change on the flooding, along wit
h exacerbating factors including deforestation, failures in flood defenses and a lack of funding for disaster resilience.
“Climate change is undeniably fueling more severe flooding in Southeast Asia,” said Davide Faranda, research director in climate physics at the French Nation
al Center for Scientific Research who led a study on Vietnam’s November floods.
The risk in Southeast Asia is that “compound disasters” — when multiple extreme events strike in close succes
sion — will occur more frequently and inflict greater damage in the coming years, according to research firm BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.
The region also has some of the largest shares of people living in areas at risk of floods: 21% in Malaysia, roughly 20%
Watch More Image Part 2 >>>
in Indonesia and around 15% in Singapore, Vietnam, the Philippines and Sri Lanka, BMI analysts wrote in a note this week.
That proportion is higher than in the mid-to-late 2010s, and “will c
ontinue to rise as global warming accelerates and populations in vulnerable areas grow,” they wrote.
Read more: Deadly Floods Hit Southeast Asia as More Rain Forecast
Countries in Southeast Asia consistently rank among the most at risk, with the Philippines, Myanmar and Vi
etnam among the 10 nations most affected by climate change last year, according to Germanwatch, an independent human rights organization.
Despite those risks, progress toward building climate resiliency in many countries lags other parts of the worl
d partly because some authorities in Southeast Asia prioritized growth over planning and adaptation efforts, s
aid Helen Nguyen, an environmental engineering professor with University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
“The development went so fast,” said Nguyen. “That came at the expense of the environment.”
That intersection of politics and failed efforts on climate adaptation is most acute in the Philippines, where p
opulist anger is rising over a multibillion corruption scandal involving government funds for flood mitigation projects.
The scandal triggered a pause on infrastructure projects, dented investor confidence, and caused economic growth to tank to its lowest level in four years.
While the impact so far on industrial output from this year’s storms has been limited, the overall damage is still unclear.
The $20 billion total for last month alone is based on government and analyst estimates, which will likely be revised as total damage is assessed. Last year, seas
onal floods caused an estimated $25 billion in economic losses across Asia-Pacific, according to a study by insurance broker Aon Plc.
Despite the wide regional impact, “the region’s main commercial and industrial centers appear largely unscathed,” analysts at Capital Economics wrote in a resea
rch note Wednesday, comparing the damage to the 2011 Thailand floods that hit the industrial areas around Bangkok and caused a double-digit GDP decline.
The hit to supply chains and manufacturing “is likely to be small and temporary,” though risks remain that crop losses will push up food prices, the analysts wrote.
Coffee producers in Vietnam remain on track for higher production and exports, despite delays to the harvest caused by the widespread flooding.