Organic growth is a key barometer of an organization’s success in any industry. And it’s critical when it comes to an independent agency’s profitability in a changing market cycle like today.
While no one is predicting a return to “soft market” pricing in 2026, there are noticeable trends pointing to a changing market, including increased appetite from carriers in many sectors of the insurance business and a declining trend in rate increases across most lines of coverage. Average premium renewal rate changes for all major commercial lines of business except workers’ compensation are up year over year, according to Ivans’ Q2 2025 Index. However, compared to Q1 2025, Q2 2025 revealed a decrease in average premium renewal rate changes except in general liability.
Most carriers are back to making money, said Keith Captain, president of FirstChoice, a MarshBerry Company. “They’re back to making an underwriting profit, and so you’re starting to hear talk now about the need to deploy capital, meaning they need to invest in growth,” he said. “You’re actually starting to see certain lines of business where there’s been some rate decreases or carriers are opening up a new company line in order to be able to grow.” Still, that trend depends heavily on the individual carrier’s own appetite and the geography of the risk, he added.
No one is seeing any insurance carrier return to “full growth mode,” he said. But instead, insurers are drilling down into specific areas where they want to grow–and grow profitably, Captain said. That might mean targeting specific counties in one state rather than opening up to the entire state. What they really learned over the past few years on the road back to profitability is they need to be really focused on exactly where they want to grow, he said.
There have been lessons learned during this market cycle for both the carriers and their agents, Matt Masiello, CEO of SIAA, said. “This was a really difficult market cycle. I think it was more dramatic than any of us thought it was going to be, and it’s been longer and more dramatic in pricing changes,” Masiello said. “And it’s not over yet.”
Despite the challenges, the property/casualty market is in a healthier place, he added. “I think that agencies are better and stronger for having come through a hard market like this,” Masiello said. It’s been good because those dramatic rate adjustments improved the health of insurance carriers today. “We need our carriers to be strong, healthy, and profitable so they have the ability to support our customers and our agencies.”
One of the things this hard market cycle has created is the opportunity for agency networks, like SIAA, to solve problems. “What can we do to help agents and carriers solve problems for customers?” Masiello asked.
One future problem in a changing market is growing in a market where pricing might start trending down. That’s why growth-minded agencies, and their agency network partners, will need to re-focus their efforts on growing organically in 2026, Captain predicts.