Sunny skies and mild temperatures this week greeted the bigges
t US farm show of the year. The contrast couldn’t be greater with the se
ntiment among attendees as low crop prices and trade tariffs squeeze the agricultural sector.
The market for American crops is getting “pretty nasty,” said Scott
Metzger, who drove more than 300 miles (482 kilometers) to attend. T
hat helped to keep the mood subdued at the Farm Progress Show this week in Illinois.
Metzger grows soybeans, corn and wheat in central Ohio, and he said farmers are dealing with too much chaos t
o think about spending this year on big-ticket items like the gleaming trac
ors and combines on display. It’s the latest sign of trouble for the US farm economy.
America’s farmers are expecting bumper crops this fall, but they’ve got little idea of where all the supplies will go
. China, historically the biggest buyer of US soybeans, hasn’t inke
d a deal for a single cargo from this year’s harvest, which starts next month. Blowback from President Donald Tru
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mp’s trade war has served to further chill the administration’s already icy relationship with the Asian country.
Tariff tensions are making the North American farm market the most uncertain in the world even as conditions in
Europe and Asia start to improve, according to Gerrit Marx, chief execut
ive officer of CNH Industrial NV, which unveiled some its latest machinery at the show. There are so many unknowns i
n the US agricultural economy, several companies that had a significant presence at the annual gathering in 2024 ende
d up skipping altogether this year — that included seed maker Corteva Inc. and the world’s top fertilizer producer Nutrien Ltd.
“Farming in the US will change,” Marx said in an interview, noting that growers are trying to figure out how to adapt to shifting conditions.
“The fields will all be green. The question is: What grows? And for what purpose? And at what price?,” he said.
“It takes time for those chess pieces to move around the board, and we’re kind of in that period today.”
America’s farmers, a key voting bloc for President Donald Trump, are growing increasingly worried as harvest approaches.
The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting a record corn crop for the season starting in September
. While the soy harvest is expected to be smaller than last year after farmers planted less, yields are on track to
hit a new high. That means farmers will face a mountain of supplies just as trade tensions with Ch
ina dim prospects for American exports. Crop prices have been depressed as a result. Tariffs are also raising costs for key farm inputs like fertilizer, adding to the financial strain.
The American Soybean Association has warned that growers are near a “trade and financial precipice” and can
not survive a prolonged trade war with China. The National Corn Growers Association is sounding the alarm over an eco
nomic crisis in rural America. Credit conditions for farmers “deteriorated steadily” in the second quarter, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City report. Bankruptcies are also on the rise.