It’s the statistical peak of Atlantic hurricane season, and there isn’t a storm in sight — for now.
September’s second week is usually when the season gets into full swing, as warm ocean waters fuel dang
erous winds and coastal communities from Central America to Canada brace for nature’s fury. Pre-season outlooks cal
led for more than the average 14 storms to form between June and the end of November.
So far, though, those forecasts appear to be too aggressive. There have been six storms in the Atlantic powerful enough to receive names and only one of th
em – Erin – reached hurricane strength. Typically, eight storms and three hurricanes would have taken shape by this
time of year. AccuWeather Inc. said Thursday that it now sees as many as 16 storms this season, down from its original prediction of up to 18.
Still, late-season systems can unleash widespread devastation. After a lull in early September last
year, Hurricane Helene formed toward the end of the month, followed closely behind by Hurricane Milton. The two storms kill
ed at least 277 people in the US and caused $113 billion in losses and damages across the US.
“There are definitely times in a hurricane season when you have two- or three-week periods of nothing,” said Eric
Blake, a senior hurricane specialist at the US National Hurricane Center. “Last year is a decent example. It was extremely busy later in the season.”
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Related: Warm Gulf Water Could Fuel Storm Intensification in September
Water temperatures are reaching record highs across the Gulf of Mexico, amplifying the risk of rapid intensification — the phenomenon of storms growing quickly in
strength — if systems develop there, according to AccuWeather. Warm water extends deep, meaning the storms will have a reservoir of fuel.
“The exceptional warmth in the Gulf is troubling,” Alex DaSilva, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, said in a statement.
In the near term, though, dry air has combined with unfavorable wind conditions, a lack of thunderstorms and the slowdown of fast-flowing air currents in
the upper atmosphere to “put significant breaks on the Atlantic hurricane season,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast.
As to “where the hurricanes have gone, I think the answer is the same as the Facebook relationship status option, ‘It’s complicated,'” Klotzbach said.