Climate change fueled scorching summer temperatures that
n cities this summer, pushing overall heat deaths to more than three times what might otherwise have occurred, according to a new study.
The analysis presents an early glimpse at the effects of Europe’s fourth warmest summer on record, in which a s
eries of heatwaves hit countries from Italy to Germany and Fran
ce. Temperatures reached up to 46C (115F) in Spain and Portugal, and led to the deaths of several outdoor workers in Spain and Italy.
“These numbers represent real people who have lost their lives,” said Friederike Otto, an Imperial College London climate science professor who co-authored the s
tudy alongside colleagues from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and other institutions. “If we continue on the path that we are now — continue
burning fossil fuels — these deaths will only increase.”
Researchers focused on 854 urban areas, finding thattemperatures were as much as 3.6C higher from June throu
gh Augustdue to climate change, according to a report they released Wednesday.
But that represents just under a third of Europe’s population, they cautioned, meaning that the true death toll is al
most certainly higher. More than 60,000 people were likely killed by extrem
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e heat in Europe in the summer of 2022, and more than 47,000 people in 2023, other studies have found.
Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent and the Mediterranean is a hotspot for climate change. Extremel
y hot conditions are upending economic activities in the region, especially in t
he tourism sector. This summer, major tourist attractions including the Eiffel Tower in Paris and the Acropolis in Athens temporarily closed due to heat.
The study is part of a growing body of research that shows how climate change is disrupting human activities
now, allowing the public and policymakers to understand in close to r
eal time the estimated effects of greenhouse gas pollution. Some scientist
s have also looked to this cutting-edge branch of work, known as attributio
n, to help draw connections between damaging extreme weather and individual polluters.
Read more: How Hot Can It Get? Scientists Are Struggling to Find an Answer
Only in the last decade have scientists been able to quickly assess what role climate change has played in extreme weather events.
They do this by statistical analysis of the local weather history and comparing observed weather with simulations of
a cooler, pre-warming climate. Based on research on how death rates change with the temperature, they can then estimate the number of heat deaths that occurred and how
many might have been expected without climate change. Government statistics tend to undercount heat deaths, researchers note.