Global growth is slowing as US tariff policy reduces trade a
nd heightens geopolitical uncertainty, which ultimately will lead to decelerating growth in insurance premiums, according to Swiss Re.
Global GDP growth (adjusted for inflation) is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, down from 2
.8% in 2024, Swiss Re Institute in its report titled “World insurance in 2025: a riskier, more fragmented world order.”
The global insurance industry (life and non-life) is expected to follo
w the trend with total premiums slowing to 2% this year from 5.2% in 2024, and picking up marginally to 2.3% in 2026, Swiss Re said.
“U.S. tariffs create new risks for insurers, with negative impac
ts expected through inflation, trade, supply chain and economic growth outcomes,” the report said.
Property/Casualty Sector
“The primary non-life insurance sector is seeing decelerating premium growth as insurance pricing softens an
d policy uncertainty cuts economic momentum,” said Swiss Re, forecasting 2.6% growth in real terms in 2025 (versus 4.7% in 2024) and 2.3% in 2026.
Real premium growth in advanced markets reached 4.5%
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in 2024, higher than the 3.8% reported in 2023 as well as the previous 10-year average of 3.5%, th
e report said, noting that the decade-high growth in 2024 was driven by rate hardening, with insurers increasing prices to cover rising claims severity.
Global life premium growth will also slow down – forecast by Swiss Re to drop to 1% this year in real terms, after a strong 6.1% gain in 2024.
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Localized Pricing Strength
While the U.S. tariffs will affect the insurance industry differently across geographies, they likely will increase U.S. loss trends the most, Swiss Re said, noting tha
t U.S. motor and construction claims are due to see the greatest and most direct impact, but the effects should be manageable.
However, there will be some localized pricing strength in lines such as U.S. casualty due to higher loss cost trends, but this is unlikely “to offset the overall growth downtrend.”
Outside the U.S., Swiss Re predicted that tariffs are more likely to be disinflationary, thereby reducing pressure on claims. “Premium growth will likely be lower in the environment of economic slowdown, more so in trade-exposed areas such as marine and trade credit insurance, and in sectors like construction.”
Some Opportunities
On a more positive note, Swiss Re said, the tariff crisis may provide some underwriting growth opportunities. “A heightened awareness of risk typically benefits insurers, provided that the economic shock is not severe. This is particularly the case for lines of business offering protection against economic and financial disruption, such as credit and surety insurance.”
In addition, marine insurance outside the U.S. could benefit from realignment of supply chains “if other economic blocs increase trade among themselves,” the report explained.