Choose to buy the most suitable iPhone 16 model so you can easily upgrade if you want to change to iPhone 17 Air next year.
The article by author Chris Smith of the technology site BGR will give you an overview of which iPhone 16 model is most suitable to buy so that you can upgrade to iPhone 17 Air next year:
I don't usually upgrade my iPhone every year, but I'm considering doing so with the iPhone 16 and iPhone 17 models.
More specifically, I'm pretty sure I'll want the rumored ultra-thin iPhone 17 Air next year.
But I also want Apple Intelligence and the Capture button, so I'll have to get the iPhone 16.
So for the first time in years, I’m thinking ahead to two options. I haven’t decided which iPhone 16 to buy, but I know I won’t keep it for more than a year.
When the iPhone 17 Air comes out, I’ll either trade it in for the iPhone 16 or give it to a family member.
This is the iPhone 16 to buy if you want to upgrade to iPhone 17 Air next year - 1
If you're thinking the same thing, you might be wondering which iPhone version of Apple's lineup will retain its value the best when you want to trade in another product in 2025.
Thankfully, we have some surveys that can help predict which iPhone 16 version will depreciate the least.
How fast does the value of the iPhone decrease?
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Compare and Recycle (CaR), a UK-based phone recycling comparison site, keeps up-to-date data on how much an iPhone retains after it’s released.
The company says an iPhone loses 25% of its retail price the moment you open the box, and up to 62% in the first year.
That's what we're looking for here. I want to keep the iPhone 16 for a year, then switch to the iPhone 17 Air.
Back to CaR, they say that the depreciation rate of iPhones in the first year is increasing. The iPhone 13 lost 40.09% of its value, the iPhone 14 lost 47.80%, and the iPhone 15 lost 55.57% of its value in the first year.
The iPhone 15 is particularly surprising because it's the first iPhone in history to lose more than half its value. The fact that some models in the iPhone 15 lineup can't run Apple Intelligence may have something to do with it.
This is the iPhone 16 to buy if you want to upgrade to iPhone 17 Air next year - 2
Using comparable data from recent years, CaR predicts that iPhone 16 models will depreciate by at least 60% in the first year, which is a bit worrying for the scenario we're posing.
CaR also found that the iPhone Pro models depreciate the slowest, which could be a way to consider when buying an iPhone 16 this year.
As you can see in the chart above, the iPhone 15 Pro 128GB and iPhone 15 Pro 256GB lost 50% of their value after a year. The iPhone 15 Pro Max 256GB, iPhone 15 256GB, and iPhone 15 128GB followed, losing between 50% and around 53% of their value. The iPhone 15 Pro models with 1TB of storage lost around 60% of their value in the first year.
Which iPhone 16 model should I buy?
We'll tentatively assume that the iPhone 16 will follow the same depreciation pattern as before the iPhone 17 Air launch , and all iPhone 16 prices will be the same as the iPhone 15.
Finally, we'll assume you buy your iPhone directly from Apple and don't include any carrier deals beyond Apple's $30 discount on regular iPhone models.
Of the iPhone 15 variants that depreciate the least, we'll only be keeping the 256GB variants. That's the storage capacity I'm concerned about.
Here's what can happen in a year:
- iPhone 16 Pro 256GB ($1,099) will be discounted to around $550.
- iPhone 16 Pro Max 256GB ($1,199) will be discounted to around $600.
- iPhone 16 256GB ($899) will be discounted to around $423.
To put that into perspective, it will cost you around $476 to use the iPhone 16 256GB for a year or $550 for the iPhone 16 Pro 256GB. After you trade in your phone next year, you will have recouped around 50% of your initial outlay.
The iPhone 16 Pro 256GB seems like the right choice if you want the best possible iPhone 16 experience and get a great iPhone 17 Air trade-in price next year.
I also want to note that the iPhone 16 Pro 256GB will be a great phone for many years, especially if you gift it to a loved one instead of reselling it.
